Journey Through Maturity: Tracing the Evolution of the CT Model

It's hard to measure maturity definitively, especially with research that's always ongoing, but we can roughly analyze where we've been, where we are and where we can see things going. While the CT model has not yet reached its full maturity, it has grown through several phases already and its ultimate journey can be placed into a broader context.

To help map out a sense of this context, there's a useful heuristic called the Gartner Hype Cycle which represents the maturation and social spread of new technologies, visually represented by an s-curve. In general, it describes five phases, which are:

1. Technology Trigger: There's a first phase which is the identification of a technological breakthrough; a new principle or way of doing things is discovered, and this garners publicity and excitement. Early proof-of-concept prototypes arise, but there's often no usable products yet. If it is used, it's only by enthusiasts or experts who understand the niche technology and can apply it in limited settings.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations:  This hype culminates in the long-anticipated release of a first-generation product or service, which opens up the technology beyond enthusiasts and to a general audience. This attracts large media attention, both positive and negative, as a lot of the promises made early on are not part of the initial product or service.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: This leads inevitably to a period of disenchantment. Negative press increases, as the technology's limitations and failure cases become far more easy to see now that the hype has worn off. By the end of this period, consumer adoption drops and only a fraction of initial buyers retain the technology in its current form. Some come to view the technology as "dead" in this phase.
4. Slope of Enlightenment: However, people come back around to value what it does offer, and this leads gradually to what Gartner calls a "slope of enlightenment." A more realistic understanding of the technology's benefits and limits are understood. Protocols start to mature, as to how to responsively use the technology and to address its constraints. Gen-2 products start to be made which address these shortcomings, and adoption slopes back up.
5. Plateau of Productivity: These next-Gen products eventually come into full maturity by going through a few more iterations and formalizations. It experiences scaling "growth pains" and ecosystem-building pains until it becomes a mainstream technology. The technology's value is clearly understood and forms a steady platform from which other innovations can arise.

 An example of the cycle, applied to technology products

This is a simplification, and when tested more rigorously, not all technologies follow this exact Gartner pattern. But in my opinion, this doesn't dismiss the heuristic, so much as it reveals that it's describing a different phenomenon. The value of this diagram to me is not in the literal way it may describe all technologies in their literal advancements, but in the way human psychology approaches novelty, disillusionment and actualization.

In this sense, the Gartner Hype Cycle is, to me, more of a projection of human psychology's tendency to go through these phases when integrating new information and ideas - or cognitive functions. First there is limerence and we get very excited while downplaying flaws (admiration phase), then we become more disillusioned when reality hits, but then we become soberly actualized and appreciate both the positives and negatives (actualization/normalization). It is in this sense that I want to analyze the cycle as it pertains to CT's journey upwards. CT is going through the actualization process which is part of the theory itself.

Phase 1: Technology Trigger

In the early phases, between 2012-2016, CT existed as the initial identification of a breakthrough in Jungian typology. It was a small group of us deeply interested in this little known phenomenon; a mind-body model that was actually withstanding the test of time and showed reproducibility in typings. It was objectively-constructed, and therefore could overcome the problems that subjective instruments struggle with.

The method quickly became eerily accurate at predicting psychological trends across strangers using little else but a visual analysis system. This was shocking and unbelievable to most people. Amidst a typology community jaded by the failures of Socionics V.I. (visual identification), the claim that another system had succeeded where others had failed seemed too high of a promise to believe.

The number of early adopters began to grow, but still, learning CT was not easy. Early adopters had to become familiar with a lot of new terms like "zygomatic smiles", "taut square cheeks", "puppeteer hands" and "brushstroke eye toggles." The entry bar was certainly very high, but anything that's a serious discipline has levels of complexity that can't be reduced down further.

But those who were able to "see it", could not unsee it, and the model's lack of popularity was no obstacle whatsoever to us. It was clear to us that this was the future, because anything true eventually wins out in the end. We knew this would make other Jungian models obsolete, that it would be enter the education system and become part of mainstream psychology in due time.

Phase 2: Peak of Inflated Expectations

These beliefs led to several peaks of inflated expectations, where we believed all these things would happen, if we could simply persuade others to also "see it" like we do. We felt confident most people could switch over to CT, once they were shown how their type makes more sense through this lens.

Efforts were made to teach the method to others, and the first service was created around 2018; official vultology reports. Prior to that, they were informal soft readings, but now it was a purchasable product. This opened up CT to the public and drove more interest to CT in a series of waves over months, and both good and bad reviews abounded. The word "vultology" crept into the Jungian community zeitgeist as a stand-in for the CT system. Many instinctively responded by saying vultology was absolute hogwash without giving it a fair study, while others saw it as the clear future of Jungian typology. In either case, opinions were mostly always polarized.

Phase 3: Trough of Disillusionment

But it's around this time that the system's limits started to also show. The vultology reports were not as precise as they could be about the boundaries of each signal, and sometimes qualitative language was used that was less than objective. Hence, there was some disagreement even among experienced readers. Worse still, not everyone who got a report would agree with their typing. This was alleviated when we explained their type through the lens of CT and not other models, but even then the acceptance rate was not perfect.

Since early versions of the vultology code were not quantitative enough for scientific standards, the model's claim to being empirically grounded was called into question. And since it did not seem to guarantee harmonization with a person's view of their psychology, it was not always seen as a better model, if what people wanted was to relate.

From a user-friendliness point of view, not all function profiles or type profiles were written, so even if a person wanted to accept their results, the lack of resources made it difficult for everyone to see themselves in the type.

Worse still, systemic problems began to emerge with the recognition of signal-mixers, which called into question the idea of 16 discrete types, or a 4-function model. People wondered about their unavailable functions and why they felt they had them, if their vultology didn't show them. Skepticism grew from all angles as the model tried to scale to fit everyone, but struggled with outliers.

Phase 4: Slope of Enlightenment

All this feedback lead to a series of refinements in CT's presentation, and in tempering people's expectations of it. It was better articulated that CT was chiefly reading your visual signature and giving you a classification such as PRms (i.e. "FeSi") which was statistically correlated with X behaviors or motifs above random chance, and that's the core of it. But the expectation that it would give you your "true Jungian type" was opened up to questioning, so that it largely depends on what a person thinks Jung meant or saw.

The option was opened for people to view both the CT and other Jungian systems as the same or separate, so they could say they are for example an MBTI:INFJ and a CT:NeFi (PFcs). This alleviated a lot of friction and confusion with systems fighting over the same semantic territory. A "Redefining" series was created, to clearly specify what CT meant by its terms, in order to see whether we are or are not talking about the same thing.

Profile writing also progressed, better describing both the individual functions and type developments more precisely via Model 2 computational language. This allowed for an even stronger reconnection with the psychological materials, and explanations of compound function effects imitating native functions.

As for the vultology code, it went through a much needed upgrade to 3.0, which entirely removed language-analysis signals, and almost entirely removed qualitative signals. It also provided GIF examples of each signal, showing what the signal looks like in Low, Medium or High clarity. This finally allowed inter-rated reliability of 90%+ under blind conditions, allowing CT to recover its status as empirically rooted.

This was all part of a "slope of enlightenment" which I called CT's process of standardization. The creation of clear protocols and methodologies then started to allow CT to scale up more gracefully, and the model began to take off once more.

Phase 5: Plateau of Productivity

We are now just entering the plateau of productivity. We have almost complete standardization of the codifier and its connected psychology. With the completion of the 2023 books, this will lay down the first full outline of the model, its proper clinical methods of use, its strengths and values and also its limits.

Now we can develop out a CT 'ecosystem' built around that core standardization the same way developers can use a core toolset. We're able to train more expert vultologists into the fold, open up database additions to anyone fully trained, and so on. A wiki was created that can be co-authored, and we opened up website article writing to others who have interesting thoughts on celebrities or proposed ideas. This makes the CT project a platform that others can help explore ideas in, and even make a productive living in.

As with all research enterprises, ensuring this ecosystem's survival is critical to the long-term growth of CT, since enabling other minds to test and grapple with this phenomenon is what will cause its ultimate refinement into the form it needs to take.

Upcoming Growth Cycles?

This cycle is not a one-time thing, and the end of one cycle is the start of the next, as that phase-5 plateau allows future innovations to finally arrive. We're now ready for even greater things to materialize that were not possible until we've reached the stage we are in now. For me, this is also what makes life exciting and worth getting passionate about. So, here's to a great future of mutual exploration ahead of us!