Home 2023 › Forums › The General Hall › Proposal for a System of Collective Intelligence for Vultological Typing
Hi everyone, here a is a little bit of criticism of CT and a proposal for a different process for typing subjects that relies on collective readings, aggregated results, and probabilities over time . I've been thinking about this for months, but have been too nervous to post.
I am also not aware if anyone else has thought of this too and has been argued against.
You could even get statistically significant data from this method. For example, the probability of the conductor/reviser dichotomy is .5 at chance, so if 6 people agree on someone’s conductor reviser dichotomy there’s a .03125 probability of that happening randomly which would be less than the .05 value that is commonly used as the criteria for statistical significance in most studies.
The problem about multiple people typing one single person, especially a new member, is that most of them don’t want want to show their faces to the public but instead do it privately to one trustworthy individual, in this case Auburn, who’s not gonna share the information without permission. So, by saying this, the whole premise of “typing objectively”seems that it could only work if we use celebrities as samples, which limits its capacity and use.
I like this idea! It's quite testable, and we can try this out on celebrities first.
I'd encourage anyone to make a thread in the Vultology board, recruiting volunteers to type a celebrity together. Each person can copy/paste the results of the App into their post.
As for the hyperlinks thing, yea the idea crossed my mind when I was making the App, as an eventual addition. But it'd still be a bit clunky from a user-interface perspective to click off page all the time--- how about an intermediate option where, upon hovering over a signal, a GIF of that signal displays in a hover popup box like so:

That way, a person with no initiation into CT at all can just hover over each of the 110 signals and ask themselves "does the subject do this?" -- and click yes or no. A link can also exist below the GIF to that signals' official code page where there would be ~10 GIF examples to compare against if there's any deeper question.
Additionally, these results and outputs should be specific down to the signal-- so that we know which ones the collective group is checking. Currently the App only outputs percent values per function, but it'd be possible to code it to give an output of yes/no for each signal, as well as the aggregated percentage probability.
What about something like that? @scientiam
Would this be a workable solution for group celebrity typings divorced from specialized vultologist expertise? ![]()
P.S.
I agree with @celeste that it isn't very practical for personal video submissions not just because of privacy, but because of time investments. I've been aiming to sustain a turnaround time of 3 days (max 4) for a reading, and getting dozens of people to consistently submit their estimations for one person would be unfeasible until the community's large enough to support such a massive volunteer effort, as it'd have to be a volunteer one. Having it be a paid service involving the time+energy of dozens or hundreds of people would be financially unfeasible-- or amount to like $1 earnings by each volunteer, if anyone's into that model. ![]()
Having one reader reduces the time + cost down to a manageable 1-2 hrs of labor if we include the report writeup, which is by far the most time consuming aspect. Look at me being all logsitically minded, woohoo! Je development! (part of my soul cringes)
@Celeste, I see your point and I agree with it, I think private readings by an expert, in this case, Auburn, would still be available. I think the point I was making was that at some point, in order to reach a wider acceptance, including scientific acceptance for research purposes, CT has to be more "objective" than it currently is and this is what I envisioned as the solution.
@Auburn, Yes, I was thinking of hovering GIFs as well, but I didn't want to be all demanding and stuff, without me having any coding experience lol though I do want to take classes to learn.
I was thinking that private submissions would still be available and a database of collective readings would slowly build and become more accurate over time using the reading app, eventually supplanting the reliance on private, specialized readings. Working on celebrities first sounds like a fantastic idea until the community grows larger, I just fear that CT will disappear into oblivion without general acceptability and verification and without a system that removes its reliance on "expert" readings when nobody else is an "expert" yet. I see people here of varying levels of "expertise," but if CT is an objective phenomenon that can be shown through vultology, then anyone should be able to be given a definition of a signal and say whether they see it in a subject or not.
Logistically speaking, I know that after I got typed, I was interested in the vultology code and tried to type celebrities and family and people who would post on the forum to read their type. I think this energy is shared by many people, like @rondo and @bera. Maybe I'm shortsighted, but I do envision people using the reading app for fun to type a celebrity/friend (which many here already do) and to contribute to a larger human phenomenon that exists. So perhaps an "official" reading by a collective probability isn't feasible, but I think it is possible if people who are not worried about privacy or trust to submit their videos for public scrutiny that can eventually lead to "official" readings. I obviously don't have behind-the-scenes experience of this, so I might just be too in the clouds lol but I do see this kind of volunteering energy exists in this community. One wouldn't have to become an expert to do this, the varying levels of expertise would be based on personal interest, the system rather would rely on signals being seen or not seen by multitudes of people.
I'm in full support.
And yes, reading people is exciting and enough incentive on its own. I do like the idea of greater involvement and there's even been members wishing they could get move involved.
Mmkay, how about you (since you brought this up
) give this idea a try on a celebrity with the App how it is --to see where the consensus is at, and we can identify points of improvement along the way? The app should be functional enough to work as a feedback source atm, and I'll refine the programming until it feels seamless?
Great! I can do that, though I fear that the celebrity I pick won't be that interesting. I'm nervous again! I will post tomorrow along with my very inexperienced reading of Christopher Nolan and hope for the best, thank you for the support.
oh, and i added the app to the top menu for easier access too:

(have a good night!)
In order for the results of this study to be statistically significant, I think the typings would have to be independent of each other. Would it be better to keep your own typing of Christopher Nolan to yourself as to preserve the independence of the typings that the other volunteers come up with? Additionally, ideally, wouldn't the individual being typed be someone somebody could look up a typing of online since that would also invalidate independence.
I think the value of this project would be being able to say some thing akin to the following.
The bold percentages would be statistically significant. Thus we could say with some level of confidence that Christopher Nolan is an Ni type.
Yes, I was thinking of how to keep the typings independent of each other, as I mentioned in my post that the ideally the Reading App would calculate the percentages of each independent, random typing of Christopher Nolan, but I don't know if Auburn can code that in yet into the reading App. I was thinking to make a post with my independent results being hidden with the spoilers thing in the forum, and ask everyone else to keep their results hidden as well and then calculate our results thereafter.
I have some code written that calculates what you're talking about. It's how I came up with the numbers in my last post. I could calculate the actual percentages whenever they're ready.
Great! I'm glad there's someone who can code here and knows some statistics as I have never studied either.
What about giving a limited amount of time for typing, say an hour? For example: after those 60 minutes have passed everyone puts in their results without having prior knowledge of the other member's opinions, that way there will not be bias and a consensus can be agreed upon.
@celeste, Good suggestion, though I doubt that 10 people could do the reading in an hour, though it be good to set a time limit to see if it affects results.
A consensus of the type of a subject is not what I'm after, but whether people independently agree on what signals they are seeing and whether if the results are added it shows high agreement, which would prove that it is an objective phenomenon.
The aggregated results have the added benefit that if it shows clusters around signals that everyone is seeing, it would mean that a more accurate typing of a person is possible. It's like how if 30 people guess how many gumballs are in a gumball machine, the chances are that their average guess will be close to the actual amount of gumballs. The more people guess the more accurate the average guess is to the actual amount.
If you want to do this thing with the limited time, please wait for the weekend and let's establish it at least one day before, so everyone interested can organize their time better.
Other people's opinions do influence us but I also think it is very hard to find a time that is good for everyone. So, on a Saturday or Sunday at least the probability of more of us being free is a bit higher.
Hi @bera, I will not do a time limit. I hope by the end of this weekend or the next at least a total of 10 people (or more) will contribute their time for the test reading mentioned here and hide their results in the meantime.
I haven't read through this whole thing, but I came here to look at the signals again so I can think about how to arrange them in such an app. What a trip it was to find your thread!
Before the addition of the development levels, Auburn's typing team's inter-rater reliability was around 80%, which is pretty good. I find some of the signals too advanced for absolute newbies, but some are more obvious. An app would be a quick way to learn.
@scientiam Wouldn't try to figure out the type of a person lead to having a general agreement on the signals? Since to actually prove someone's x you have to list why while using the Vultology Code.
I also think that just stating the signals only shows half of the equation and doesn't really answer the main important question, which is: are these just random body language gestures that everyone does or is it actual proof of the evidence of the cognitive functions? Considering we're aiming for objectivity as you mentioned, signals = type should be taken into account to show people that this is something to be taken seriously.
Hi @teatime, yea arrangement of the signals matters. I was thinking that 4-5 signals at a time could be displayed on the App next to the video, and the user could click next to see the next signals.
The point of the system is that all signals would still be included and a person who has studied the more complex(?) signals would still be able to check them off if they see them. A third side effect of this system as you have noticed, along with objectivity and accuracy by probability, is that a person can learn the vultology code as they use the App over time and increase their expertise.
@celeste, I think I'm not communicating the idea correctly 🙁 the point of this system is not to "prove" someone's type, but to find the probability of someone's type based on independent readings being aggregated together by percentages. The independent readers don't talk to each other to find a consensus of the subject's type. The data from each independent reading is what is calculated to see if there is an agreement. The result is just what this subject's type is more likely to be based on the aggregated results.
If independent people can see the same signals, without talking to each other, based on the vultology code, then it shows it is not just random body gestures everyone does, but a pattern that exists and that can be quantified. A pattern in which some people have more clusters of certain signals than others, and in which a "type" is defined when a consistent pattern exists with a certain group of people and not others. I think this (signal=signal pattern=type) has been CT's claim since the beginning and should be taken seriously.
I think the system should track users, the results can be sorted or weighted. (All: 58% FeNi; Members: 78% FeNi; Typing Team: 99% FeNi)
@celeste, you're right that establishing signal exclusivity doesn't show what the functions *are,* but if they're mostly mutually exclusive, it does prove that this is a valid typology. so it's a step, but it's not the whole enchilada.
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